Democrats

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Jared Loughner: Raving Lunatic

Filed in PoliticsTags: Democrats, Media Bias, Republicans, War on Terror

I present, in all its dubious glory, the text contained in a video, written by Jared Loughner, the alleged gunman who shot U.S. Representative Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ), wounding her and others, and killing at least 5.

The slideshow-format video is titled Introduction: Jared Loughner. The text follows (transcribed as accurately as possible; "---" indicates a new slide):

My Final Thoughts: Jared Lee Loughner!

---

Most people, who read this text, forget in the next 2 second!

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The population of dreamers in the United States is less than 5%!

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If 987,123,478,961,876,341,234,671,234,098,601,978,618 is the year in B.C.E. then then the previous year of 987,123,478,961,876,341,234,671,234,098,601,978,618 is 987,123,478,961,876,341,234,671,234,098,601,978,619 B.C.E.

987,123,478,961,876,341,234,671,234,098,601,978,618 is the year in B.C.E.

Therefore, the previous year of 987,123,478,961,876,341,234,671,234,098,601,978,618 is 987,123,478,961,876,341,234,671,234,098,601,978,619 B.C.E.

If B.C.E. years are unable to start, then A.D.E. years are unable to begin.

B.C.E. years are unable to begin.

Thus, A.D.E. years are unable to begin.

---

If A.D.E. is endless in year then the years in A.D.E. don't cease.

A.D.E. is endless in year.

Therefore, the years in A.D.E. don't cease.

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If I teach a mentally capable 8 year old for 20 consecutive minutes to replace an alphabet letter with a new letter and pronunciation then the mentally capable 8 year old writes and pronounces the new letter and pronunciation that's replacing an alphabet letter in 20 consecutive minutes.

I teach a mentally capable 8 year old for 20 consecutive minutes to replace an alphabet letter with a new letter and pronunciation.

Thus, the mentally capable 8 year old writes and pronounces the new letter and pronunciation that replaces an alphabet letter in 20 consecutive minutes.

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Every human who's mentally capable is always able to be treasurer of their new currency.

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If you create one new currency then you're able to create a second new currency.

If you're able to create a second new currency then you're able to create a third new currency.

You create one new currency.

Thus, you're able to create a third currency.

---

You're a treasurer for a new currency, listener?

You create and distribute your new currency, listener?

Don't allow the government to control your grammar structure, listener?

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If you create one new language then you're able to create a second new language.

If you're able to create a second new language then you're able to create a third new language.

You create one new language.

Thus, you're able to create a third language.

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All humans are in need of sleep.

Jared Loughner is a human.

Hence, Jared Loughner is in need of sleep.

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Sleepwalking

If I define sleepwalking then is the act or state of walking, eating, or performing other motor acts while asleep, of which one is unaware upon awakening.

I define sleepwalking.

Thus, sleepwalking is the act or state of walking, eating, or performing other motor acts while asleep, of which one is unaware upon awakening.

I am a sleepwalker - who turns off the alarm clock.

---

All conscience dreaming at this moment is asleep.

Jared Loughner is conscience dreaming at this moment.

Thus, Jared Loughner is asleep.

---

Terrorist

If I define terrorist then a terrorist is a person who employs terror or terrorism, especially as a political weapon.

I define terrorst.

Thus, a terrorist is a person who employs terror or terrorism, especially as a political weapon.

If you call me a terrorist then the argument to call me a terrorist is Ad Hominem.
You call me a terrorist.
Thus the argument to call me a terrorist is Ad Hominem.

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Every United States Military recruit at MEPS in Phoenix is receiving one mini bible before the tests.

Jared Loughner is a United States Military recruit at MEPS in Phoenix.

Therefore, Jared Loughner is receiving one mini bible before the tests.

I didn't write a belief on my Army application, and the recruiter wrote on the application: None.

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The majority of citizens in the United States of America have never read the United States of America's Constitution.

You don't have to accept the federalist laws.

Nonetheless, read the United States of America's Constitution to apprehend all of the current treasonous laws.

You're literate, listener?

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If the property owners and government officials are no longer in ownership of their land and laws from a revolution then the revolutionary's from the revolution are in control of the land and laws.

The property owners and government officials are no longer in ownership of their land and laws from a revolution.

Thus, the revolutionary's from the revolution are in control of the land and laws.

---

In conclusion, reading the second United States Constitution, I can't trust the current government because of the ratifications; The government is implying mind control and brainwash on the people by controlling grammar.

No! I won't pay debt with a currency that's not backed by gold and silver!

No! I won't trust in God!

---

What's government if words don't have meaning?

Assuming the video stays online, you can watch below:

Sadly, Loughner has published a total of 5 such psychotic videos.

This man is a highly disturbed, psychotic lunatic. Please, don't fall prey to the knee-jerk reaction from the Left that he is a "rightwinger" or part of the TEA party.

If anything, he leaned to the left, rather than to the right. The guy enjoyed watching the US Flag being burned, and listed Mein Kampf and the Communist Manifesto among his favorite books.

But most importantly, his psychosis likely transcends the liberal-conservative spectrum.

Senate Projection for October 21

Filed in PoliticsTags: Democrats, Elections, Polls, Republicans, Senate

With the latest batch of Senate polling results, Neil Stevens of Likely voter has updated his Senate Projection. According to his latest model, he projects R+7, with a 3% chance of Republicans reclaiming the majority (R+10 or greater).

The problem I have with the Likely Voter projection model is two-fold: one, it factors in races that are, for all intents and purposes, already decided; and two, it seems to assume a normal distribution. If a projection were performed in which seemingly non-competitive races were removed, and the ANOVA based solely on the actually competitive races, intuition tells me that such a projection (especially with a right-leaning distribution) would have to center around R+8, if not +9. To wit:

Introducing Uncertainty Based on Non-competitive Races

Range of Possible Outcomes

First, let's set the table:

  • Seats not up for election: 63 (23R, 40D)
  • Seats up for election: 37 (18R, 19D)
  • Bondary of Possible Results: R-18 to R+19

Now, let's add in some realistic boundaries to those results.

Range of Realistic Outcomes

Lower Boundary of Realistic Outcomes

  • All 18 R-held seats are 100% likely R. (R+0)
  • The following D-held seats are 100% likely R: AR, IN, ND, PA (R+4)

It is logical to conclude that, at this point, any projection that shows anything less than R+4 is just not consistent with reality.

Upper Boundary of Realistic Outcomes

  • The following D-held seats are 100% likely D: HI, MD, NY, OR, VT (R+14)

It is logical to conclude that, at this point, any projection that shows anything more than R+14 is just not consistent with reality.

Range of Realistic Outcomes

So, at this point, the range of realistic outcomes is R+4 to R+14. Anything outside of these numbers should be considered 0% likely.

Range of Likely Outcomes

  • The following D-held seats are 90% likely R: CO, WI (R+6, lower)
  • The following D-held seats are 90% likely D: DE, NY (s) (R+12, upper)

So, at this point, the range of likely outcomes is R+6 to R+12. Anything outside of this range should be considered unlikely.

Likely Voter's current projection distribution curve has a mean of R+7, and R+5 - R+8 accounts for 77% of all outcomes (R+7 22.6%, R+6 22%, R+5/R+8 35.4%). If I assume that Likely voter's probability curve is normally distributed, then, IMHO, the mean simply must be shifted too far left. There is just no possible way that R+5 has 18% probability. I'd say, at the absolute upper end, it has 5-10% probability. Balancing the 90% Likely R pickups against the 90% Likely D holds lowers the probability even further.

So, just using back-of-mental-napkin calculations, I would say:

  • <R+5: 0% likely
  • R+5: 5% likely
  • R+6 - R+12: 90% likely
  • R+13: 5% likely
  • >R+13: 0% likely

Analysis of Actually Competitive Races

The eventual outcome will be determined entirely by the results of six races: CA, CT, IL, NV, WA, and WV.

Two or three weeks ago, I would have rated those races as follows:

  • Lean-R: The following D-held seats are 55% likely: IL, WV
  • Toss-Up: The following D-held seats are 50% likely: NV, WA
  • Lean-D: The following D-held seats are 45% likely: CA, CT

However, things have shifted a bit; I would now rate these races as follows:

  • Lean-Likely-R: The following D-held seats are 60% likely: WV
  • Lean-R: The following D-held seats are 55% likely: IL, NV
  • Toss-Up: The following D-held seats are 50% likely: CA, WA
  • Lean-Likely-D: The following D-held seats are 40% likely: CT

As you can see, aside from CT (which, to be honest, I am close to writing off as a potential Republican pick-up), all of the competitive races have shifted in the Republicans' favor. I put together a quick Monte Carlo simulation of my own, and here are the results:

Senate Projection 21Oct10

So, my model projects a mean +9 seat gain for Republicans, and a 40.1% chance that Republicans will regain control of the Senate (a gain of +10 or more seats). Results:

  • n = 10,000
  • μ = 5.2
  • σ = 1.4
  • max = +13
  • min = +5
  • +8 - +10 = 73.1%
  • 10+ = 40.1%

At first blush, these numbers appear to me to be more realistic, given the current state of the races in play (and not in play).

Evaluating the Normal Distribution Model

It seems that the Likely Voter projection model is based upon the assumption that the outcomes of competitive races will be normally distributed. I wouldn't expect a normal distribution for these outcomes, even in a "normal" election year - but especially not in a "wave" year.

Just as the outcome distribution of competitive races was biased toward the Democrats in 2006 and 2008, I fully expect the distribution to be biased toward the Republicans in 2010. This bias is due primarily to two factors that are not easily accounted for through pre-election polling: the enthusiasm gap and shifts in party affiliation.

In short, pollsters simply don't have a reliable means of estimating the breakdown of voter turnout, and it is entirely likely that they will tend to err on the side of a conservative estimation of the shift from 2006/2008 to 2010.

In a later post, I will examine some of these factors in each of the six competitive races.

Is Sestak Closing on Toomey in PA?

Filed in PoliticsTags: Democrats, Elections, Media Bias, Polls, Republicans, Senate

The latest news out of the Pennsylvania Senate race between Pat Toomey and Joe Sestak is that a few recent polls have shown Toomey's 10-point lead evaporate. First, Quinnipiac showed Toomey up only 48-46. Then PPP showed Sestak up 45-46. Now Morning Call shows the race tied at 43-43. So what gives? Is this race, that Rasmussen still lists as "Solid GOP", actually in trouble?

In a word: no.

To explain why, we'll need to look more closely at the crosstabs of these polls. But first, so you don't have to take my word for it, read what Jim Geraghty has to say over at NRO's The Campaign Spot.

Quinnipiac

Now, onto the analysis of the polls. For the sake of expediency, and since their crosstabs are available in the poll report, I'll focus on Quinnipiac. Specifically, I'll look at the party-affiliation breakdown for the Senate race, and for Obama's job approval.

Poll Results

Topline

  • Toomey: 46%
  • Sestak: 48%
  • Don't Know/No Answer: 5%

Senate

D R I Total
Toomey 7% 88% 56% 48%
Sestak 89% 8% 35% 46%
DK/NA 4% 3% 9% 5%

Obama Job Approval

D R I Total
Approve 85% 11% 30% 44%
Disapprove 13% 87% 64% 53%
DK/NA 2% 2% 6% 3%

Analysis

The poll doesn't indicate its party-affiliation weight values, but based on the above polls, I calculate that this weighting is as follows:

  • D: 38.0%
  • R: 34.5%
  • I: 27.5%

And there's the problem with this poll: this party-affiliation weighting bears little resemblance to reality. Jim Geraghty's piece linked above does a great job of explaining how these numbers are completely inconsistent with the electorate. But to prove the point, I'll look at some comparisons (previous-election party affiliation breakdowns taken from the Geraghty post).

Obama Job Approval

First, I'll examine jjust one change from the previous Quinnipiac poll to this one:

President Obama gets a negative 44 – 53 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 40 – 56 percent September 22.

Note that overall, Obama's approval numbers continue to decrease, not increase. Yet somehow, this poll (miraculously) discovered a seven-point swing in Obama's favor since the previous month. That, alone, is enough to raise questions about the validity of the poll's topline. Interestingly, adjusting the party-affiliation weighting from 38.0%D / 34.5%R / 27.5%I to 32%D / 38%R / 30%I returns Obama's Approval/Disapproval numbers to 40% Approve / 56% Disapprove, and result in a 52% - 42% Toomey lead over Sestak (which is essentially right where the race has been for some time).

Democrat Best-Case Scenario: 2008

Next, I'll adjust the party affiliation weighting from the above numbers to the 2008 election numbers. In 2008, the turnout was 44% Democrat, 37% Republican, and 17% Independent. These numbers, which clearly represent not only a best-case scenario, but also an absolute pipe dream, result in a 48% - 45% Sestak lead over Toomey.

Get that? In a pipe-dream scenario, the Democrat would only be leading this race by 3%.

Democrat Second-Best-Case Scenario: 2006

Since the 2008 results are clearly out of reach, let's examine the 2006 results, in which the turnout was 43% Democrat, 38% Republican, and 19% Independent. These numbers, which represent a huge Democrat midterm election (again, something that will not be repeated in 2010), result in a 48% - 47% Sestak lead over Toomey.

So, once again, a pipe-dream scenario results in the Democrat leading this race by only 1%.

Bad News for Democrats: 1994

Since 2010 is clearly a Republican wave year, let's examine the poll results adjusted for 1994 turnout in the state, which was 39% Democrat, 41% Republican, and 20% Independent. These numbers result in a 50% - 45% Toomey lead over Sestak.

The problem for Sestak is that even the clearly skewed Quinnipiac party-affiliation weighting shows a lower Democrat turnout in 2010.

The even bigger problem for Sestak is that not only is the Democrat vote suppressed, but also the Independent vote is breaking 2-to-1 in favor of Toomey, and the Independent vote is highly motivated (by similar 2-to-1 ratios, Independents disapprove of Obama's job performance, disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy, prefer their Senator to oppose Obama's agenda, would prefer the Senate to be controlled by Republicans, and believe that Toomey rather than Sestak shares their personal values; also, 82% of Independents are dissatisfied/angry with the way government works).

Charting The Results

For comparison, here are the results of the above analyses:

D R I Toomey Sestak
Quinnipiac 38.0% 34.5% 27.5% 48% 46%
Obama 40% Approval 32% 38% 30% 52% 42%
2008 Turnout 44% 37% 17% 45% 48%
2006 Turnout 43% 38% 19% 47% 48%
1994 Turnout 39% 41% 20% 50% 45%

Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Race

Perhaps the worst news yet for the Sestak campaign is that the Pennsylvania Senate race isn't the only statewide election this year. Pennsylvania also has a gubernatorial race, and that race has exhibited a very steady, 10-point lead for the Republican candidate.

Pennsylvania voters are not likely to switch parties between Gubernatorial and Senate candidates, and vice versa. Thus, if the sudden tightening of the Senate race is real, it should translate into a similar tightening in the Gubernatorial race. Unfortunately for Sestak, no such tightening exists.

Conclusion

Much ado about nothing. Make of it what you will, but the conclusion that Sestak is leading Toomey - or that he has even closed the gap - simply doesn't withstand a reality check.

By all appearances, Republican Pat Toomey will win the Senate race by 5-10 points over Joe Sestak.

The Slaughter Rule: Unprecedented

Filed in PoliticsTags: Constitutional Rights, Democrats, Legislature, Media Bias, ObamaCare, Republicans

Congressional democrats promoting the use of the so-called "Slaughter rule" - a self-executing or "deem and pass" rule that would allow the House of Representatives to "deem" as passed the Senate health care bill without bringing the bill to the floor of the House for consideration are attempting to rationalize their actions by claiming that Republicans have used self-executing rules in the past, and that, therefore, their opposition to the Slaughter rule is hypocritical.

On the surface, their claim sounds rather damning for Republicans, such as Mike Pence, who oppose the Slaughter rule. However, upon closer inspection, the democrats' claim proves specious.

Mike Pence: Hypocrite?

Democrats claim that Pence has voted for a self-executing rule three times. Let us examine those votes.

HR1003 (109th Congress, 2006)

HR1003 reads as follows:

Resolved, That upon adoption of this resolution, House Resolution 1000, amended by the amendment in the nature of a substitute recommended by the Committee on Rules now printed in the resolution, is hereby adopted.

Thus, HR1003 used a self-executing rule to deem as passed HR1000, which modifies the order of proceedings for the House of Representatives.. However, this use of a self-executing rule differs from the Slaughter rule in two critical aspects:

  1. HR1000 was a resolution that amended the order of proceedings for the House of Representatives. It was not a legislative act.
  2. HR1000 was originally brought to the floor of the House, and was referred to and amended by the Rules Committee. The use of the self-executing rule in HR1003 merely allowed House members to deem as passed the resolution as amended by the Rules Committee, rather than bringing the resolution to the floor again. Thus, the use of the self-executing rule was intended to circumvent normal House procedure, not to avoid voting on HR1000.

Verdict: the use of a self-executing rule in HR1003 in order to deem HR1000 as passed does not invalidate opposition to use of the Slaughter rule to deem the Senate health care bill as passed.

H.Res.653 (109th Congress, 2006)

H.Res.653 reads as follows:

Resolved, That the House hereby concurs in the Senate amendment to the House amendment to the bill (S. 1932) to provide for reconciliation pursuant to section 202(a) of the concurrent resolution on the budget for fiscal year 2006 (H. Con. Res. 95).

H.Res.653 represents the passage of a conference report for the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005, and is a classic example of how bills typically become law in the U.S. Congress:

  1. The House or Senate (always the latter, if the bill involves levying taxes) passes a bill
  2. The other chamber considers and passes the same bill.
  3. If the second chamber amends the bill as passed by the first chamber, either the first chamber must pass the bill as amended by the second chamber, or else (as is typically the case), the two chambers seat a Conference Committee to iron out the differences between the two versions of the bill. The outcome of this process is known as a Conference Report.
  4. Both the House and the Senate then each pass the Conference Report, and the bill is then presented to the president.

In fact, the 109th Congress followed this process exactly in enacting the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005:

  1. The Senate passed S.1932 on November 03, 2005.
  2. The House passed H.R.4241 on November 18, 2005.
  3. The two bills were reconciled via Conference Report.
  4. The House passed the Conference Report on February 01, 2006, via H.Res.653.
  5. The Senate passed the Conference Report on February 08, 2006, via S.Con.Res.80.

Thus, H.Res.653 used a self-executing rule to deem as passed the Conference Report for S.1932, which the House originally passed as H.R.4241. However, it also differs from the Slaughter rule in two critical aspects:

  1. H.Res.653 deemed as passed a bill on which the House of Representatives had already voted: H.R.4241.
  2. H.Res.653 did not further modify the Conference Report for S.1932/H.R.4241. The Slaughter rule attempts to deem as "passed" the Senate health care bill, while at the same time amending that same bill. (The Slaughter rule "deems as passed" the Senate bill only upon House passage of a Reconciliation bill that amends the Senate bill.) Thus, the House will be engrossing a bill that it has at the same time amended.

Verdict: the use of a self-executing rule in H.Res.653 in order to deem the S.1932/H.R.4241 Conference Report as passed does not invalidate opposition to use of the Slaughter rule to deem the Senate health care bill as passed.

H.Res.572 (109th Congress, 2005)

The germane section of H.Res.572 reads as follows:

SEC. 2. Upon adoption of this resolution, House Concurrent Resolution 308 is hereby adopted.

Thus, the self-executing rule of H.Res.572 deems as passed a "technical correction", per H.Res.308, in the enrollment of H.R.3058 (an appropriations bill). However, it also differs from the Slaughter rule in two critical aspects:

  1. H.Res.572 merely deemed as passed a "technical correction" to a bill on which the House of Representatives had <em>already voted</em>: H.R.3058.
  2. H.Res.572 did not further modify the H.R.3058. The Slaughter rule attempts to deem as "passed" the Senate health care bill, while at the same time <em>amending</em> that same bill. (The Slaughter rule "deems as passed" the Senate bill only upon House passage of a Reconciliation bill that <em>amends</em> the Senate bill.) Thus, the House will be engrossing a bill that it has at the same time amended.

Verdict: the use of a self-executing rule in H.Res.572 in order to deem as passed a "technical correction" amendment to the already engrossed H.R.3058 does not invalidate opposition to use of the Slaughter rule to deem the Senate health care bill as passed.

Verdict: Mike Pence

Pence's opposition to the Slaughter rule cannot be considered to be hypocritical with respect to his previous support of self-executing rules in the House. None of his previous votes represents, supports, or justifies the intent of the Slaughter rule, since, in all cases in which Pence voted for a self-executing rule, he was doing so with respect to bills that had already been voted on and passed by the House.

Bonus: Et Tu, Steny?

Liberals in the media are bending over backward to paint the Republicans as hypocrites on the self-executing rule issue - but, ironically, in so doing, they merely display the hypocrisy of the Democrats. Consider Steny Hoyer, the House Majority Leader. Time, that bastion of liberal group-think, quotes a hyperventilating Hoyer in 2003. After complaining about the Republican majority limiting debate in the House (paging Nancy Pelosi... paging Nancy Pelosi...), Hoyer unloads this corker:

Not content with the denying the Minority to offer amendments and substitutes, the Majority has even refused to permit Democrats the chance to vote on the Majority's own bills. That is precisely what happened on June 12. This being the 23rd, that was 13 days ago. When the Republican leadership reported a self-executing rule providing for the adoption of the $82 billion plan over 10 years and an almost trillion-dollar plan over 20 years, accelerating the increased child tax credit for low-income people families, we didn't even get an opportunity to vote on the bill itself except by reference in a self-executing rule. What kind of lack of confidence does that display? What kind of process in pursuit of effectiveness does that mean that we are adopting? What kind of demeaning of democracy is the objective of efficiency resulting in? I would remiss to fail to note that barely 1 hour later, the House passed on a bipartisan vote -- you talk about bipartisan votes -- a nonbinding motion to instruct the conferees to accept the substantially more responsible Senate version of that bill, doing exactly the opposite of what a half an hour the House had voted on. Why? Because it had no full debate, and it was very ambivalent, and we knew the House was ambivalent, and you knew the House was ambivalent, and you were afraid, fearful that 12 or 15 Republicans, if allowed to vote on the substance as opposed to voting procedurally on a rule where party loyalty is so important, you were afraid to put the substance to the test of democracy, fearful that you would lose 12 to 15, and we would prevail in our position. House Democrats, of course, are trying to offer the same Senate bill as the substitute, but the Republican Majority blocked us from doing so.

Wow, sounds bad, huh? Sounds exactly like the Slaughter rule, doesn't it?

Except, it isn't.

Notice, if you will, Hoyer's mention of conferees. Why, those would be the sitting members of a Conference Committee, who return Conference Reports. That means that the House of Representatives had already voted on and passed the bill in question. The Conference Report regarded H.R.1308, which passed the house by a voice vote. The self-executing rule to deem the Conference Report as passed was in H.Res.270, which passed by roll-call vote. When Hoyer claims that the minority didn't get to vote on the bill, he is lying.

Dare I say it? Hoyer's ardent defense of the Slaughter rule is the epitome of hypocrisy. To wit, here is what Hoyer has to say about the Slaughter rule:

“We’re going to vote on a bill, on a rule, which would provide for the result that, if a majority are for it, that will adopt a bill, the Senate bill, which has had extensive debate, extensive exposure,” Hoyer said.

“Does anybody in this room doubt that you have to vote on that?” he said. “We will vote on it, in one form or another.”

I rest my case.

Other Self-Executing Rules in Republican-Controlled Houses

Clerical/Technical Corrections to Already Passed Bills

The following House Resolutions represent self-executing rules to deem as passed "clerical" or "technical" correction amendments to bills that have already been voted on and passed by the House:

  • H.Res.180, 104th Congress, 1995 (amending a Conference Report)
  • H.Res.393, 104th Congress, 1995 (amending a Conference Report)
  • H.Res.232, 105th Congress, 1997 (amending a Conference Report)
  • H.Res.71, 108th Congress, 2003 (amending a Conference Report)

All of the above uses of the self-executing rule apply only to amendments to bills already voted on and passed by the House of Representatives. As such, these House Resolutions do not justify the Slaughter rule to "deem as passed" the Senate health care bill, which the House has never brought to the floor for debate, much less voted and passed.

Consideration of Conference Reports

The following House Resolutions represent self-executing rules to deem as passed the Conference Report to already passed House bills:

  • H.Res.63, 1933
  • H.Res.510, 1948
  • H.Res.391, 104th Congress, 1996

All of the above uses of the self-executing rule apply only to deeming as passed Conference Reports for bills already voted on and passed by the House of Representatives. As such, these House Resolutions do not justify the Slaughter rule to "deem as passed" the Senate health care bill, which the House has never brought to the floor for debate, much less voted and passed.

Specifying House Procedures in Consideration of Other Bills

The following House Resolutions represent self-executing rules to specify the procedures and rules of debate in consideration of other House bills:

  • H.Res.336, 104th Congress, 1996
    (specifying the rules of debate for another bill under consideration by the House)
  • H.Res.386, 106th Congress, 1999
    (tabling a Conference Report)

The above use of the self-executing rule applies only to specifying the procedures and rules of debate for other bills under consideration by the House. These self-executing rules do not deem any bill to be passed. The first represents merely a procedural motion, and the second tables a Conference Report. As such, these House Resolutions do not justify the Slaughter rule to "deem as passed" the Senate health care bill, which the House has never brought to the floor for debate, much less voted and passed.

Summary

The 12 uses of self-executing rules referenced above break down as follows:

  • Consideration (passage or tabling) of Conference Reports: 5
  • Passage of clerical or technical correction amendments to Conference Reports: 5
  • Passage of rules of procedure for the House: 2

None of the referenced uses of a self-executing rule represent passage of a bill that has never been brought to the floor of, debated, and voted on by the House of Representatives. Thus, none of the above referenced uses of a self-executing rule justify, rationalize, or support the use of the Slaughter rule to "deem as passed" the Senate health care bill.

The use of the Slaughter rule to "deem as passed" the Senate health care bill, which has never been brought to the floor of, debated, or voted on by the House of Representatives is, therefore, unprecedented.

De-Linking LGF

Filed in Politics, Web DevelopmentTags: Democrats, Web Site

Just a quick note: Little Green Footballs has been removed from this site's blogroll.

I have been a long-time reader of LGF, ever since Charles Johnson's "throbbing memo" broke open the Rathergate (Bush National Guard) scandal of 2004. I appreciated his evisceration of the MSM as well as his support for Israel and exposure of Islamofascism.

However, since that time, LGF has devolved into little more than an anti-Christian, pro-evolutionism, pro-Global-Warming, right-wingers-as-extremists, guilt-by-association site, in which any dissent is treated with capricious banning.

I have maintained the link to LGF, out of appreciation for his past work as well as the few things about which we still agreed. However, I can no longer do so. My action follows suit with the good folks at Power Line, who took the same action last week, and is precipitated by Charles Johnson's crude, baseless, and unwarranted attack on Gateway Pundit's Jim Hoft.

I will not speak disrespectfully of Charles Johnson; we simply have divergent - and, apparently, incompatible - beliefs regarding socio-political policy and treatment of those who frequent and comment on our respective blogs.

I, too, miss the Charles Johnson we all once thought we knew.

A Critical Look at the DHS Report on Rightwing Extremism

Filed in Politics, Social IssuesTags: Constitutional Rights, Democrats, Military, Republicans, War on Terror

I know I'm a few days late in responding to this story, but it has taken me a while to put my response together.

Mere weeks after the MIAC terrorism report came to light (and was subsequently rescinded due to public outrage), The Liberty Papers and Roger Hedgecock broke the story about an eerily similar report out of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, titled Rightwing Extremism: Current Economic and Political Climate Fueling Resurgence in Radicalization and Recruitment (PDF report from Michelle Malkin).

Generally speaking, the issues with the Rightwing Report, which the DHS has confirmed and stands behind, can be grouped as follows:

  1. Overly broad definition of "rightwing extremism" (RWE) that conflates right-wing ideology/socio-political views with extremism/violence (i.e. MIAC II)
  2. Failure to identify RWE groups or individuals, identify any evidence of risk of impending rightwing extremist violence, or specify/quantify assessments
  3. Downplaying the differentiation between mainstream rightwing groups and lone wolf fringe extremists, and the relative risk of each
  4. Conflation of militia movement with extremism/voilence (i.e. MIAC II)
  5. Conflation of disagreement with liberal policy changes with racism
  6. Conflation of racism (and anti-semitism) and "rightwing extremism"
  7. Conflation of racist beliefs with anti-government beliefs
  8. Conflation of economic downturn/poverty with rightwing radicalization
  9. Failure to cite sources for assessments/assertions

Each of these points will be addressed at length, below.

Very quickly, the story exploded on the right, including Michelle Malkin, Red State (including Moe Lane, Warner Todd Huston, and Hogan), WorldNetDaily, The Anchoress, Legal Insurrection, HotAir, and PowerLine (to whose post I will return shortly).

The outrage hasn't been limited to the blogosphere. This Ain't Hell, Michelle Malkin, and Gateway Pundit reported on the American Legion's response to the report's implications toward returning military veterans. Likewise, Michelle Malkin and RedState (including Warner Todd Huston and E Pluribus Unum) report that seven U.S. Senators have sent a letter to Janet Napolitano demanding that she produce the evidence used as the basis for the report. Also, Designated Conservative reports that the Thomas More Law Center has filed a request with the DHS challenging the report.

Apparently, though, some don't seem to understand the problem. Charles Johnson of LGF has deemed outrage at the report to be the stuff of the "black helicopter" crowd. Informed Speculation (the erstwhile Decision '08) fails to understand the indignation. Strata-sphere calls the response "hemming and hawing", and "shrillness." Likewise, "moderates" are dismissing the outrage.

The primary argument of those who dismiss this outrage is that DHS has issued similar reports regarding leftwing extremism. The secondary argument appears to be that DHS should be concerned with potential acts of violence, whether they originate from the left or from the right. The final - and most particularly asinine - argument is that the report originated with the Bush Administration.

(Ed Morrissey and Michelle Malkin smack down the latter argument. Napolitano was in such a hurry to get the report out that she failed to address internal civil liberties concerns regarding wording of the report's definition of "rightwing extremism.")

Since the story first broke, the Leftwing Extremism report has surfaced: Leftwing Extremists Likely to Increase Use of Cyber Attacks over the Coming Decade (PDF report from FOX News). Unfortunately, the Leftwing Extremism report in no way resembles the Rightwing Extremism report, as I will address shortly. Also, a reading of the two reports provides the response to the latter argument. Real, hard evidence of past and continued leftwing extremist violence exists and provides the basis and support for the Leftwing Extremism report; however, baseless conjecture provides the basis and support for the Rightwing Extremism report, which even states that no evidence whatsoever exists that rightwing extremist violence represents a current threat.

(Note: The Rightwing Extremism report was prepared by the Extremism and Radicalization Branch, Homeland Environment Threat Analysis Division and coordinated with the FBI. The Leftwing Extremism report was prepared by the Strategic Analysis Group, Homeland Environment and Threat Analysis Division.)

Rather than the mere existence of a Leftwing Extremism report quelling the expressed concern regarding the Rightwing Extremism report, a reading of the Leftwing Extremism report actually confirms much of that concern:

First, the Leftwing Extremism report provides a very narrowly focused definition of leftwing extremism, including in the definition not just ideology but also that such extremists display a willingness to violate the law to acheive their objectives.

Second, the Leftwing Extremism report specifically names the extremist groups to which the report applies. The report differentiates between animal/environmental rights extremists and anarchist extremists. The report lists by name such animal/environmental groups as Animal Liberation Front, Earth Liberation Front, Stop Huntingdon Animal Cruelty, elements of Animal Defense League, and Earth First; and such anarchist groups as Crimethinc, the Ruckus Society, and Recreate 68.

Note: oddly, the report includes not merely "anti-government" but also the following ideologies under "anarchist": anticapitalist, antiglobalization, communist, and socialist, anti-Western-government, and anti-large-business. Regardless of the "anarchist" designation for these ideologies, the report - rightly so - includes them as leftwing (further putting the lie to the Rightwing Extremism report that attempts to lump some of these ideologies under rightwing extremism).

Rather than imagining some perceived risk or threat of violence where no supporting evidence exists, the report identifies concrete examples of recent leftwing extremist violence, and bases its assessments on those examples.

Third, rather than implying that all ideologically similar groups fall under the extremist definition, the report clearly states in its definition of Leftwing Extremists that these such groups tend to be composed of lone wolves, small cells, and splinter groups, rather than being hierarchally organized.

Fourth, the Leftwing Extremism report provides a source summary statement, explaining its methodology and sourcing of information from which the report's assessments are derived.

Each of these points is in direct, stark contrast with the Rightwing Extremism report, as I will explain. (Related: Jonah Goldberg posts quite a few reader comments making similar points comparing and contrasting the two reports.

The critical point that the nay-sayers appear to be missing is that such a report has consequences. Already, (via Liberty Papers) the report has led to tea party protesters in southern Maryland being labeled as a potential concern. And as the NRO Corner points out, the report is part of a pattern for Obama.

Now, on to the report itself. Here are my issues with the report, point by point.

#1 Overly broad definition of "rightwing extremism" (RWE) that conflates right-wing ideology/socio-political views with extremism/violence (i.e. MIAC II)

Unlike the Leftwing Extremism report, which differentiated between ideology and proclivity toward acts of violence, the Rightwing Extremism report makes no such differentiation.

A footnote on page 2 of 9 of the report provides the report's definition of "rightwing extremism":

Rightwing extremism in the United States can be broadly divided into those groups, movements, and adherents that are primarily hate-oriented (based on hatred of particular religious, racial or ethnic groups), and those that are mainly antigovernment, rejecting federal authority in favor of state or local authority, or rejecting government authority entirely. It may include groups and individuals that are dedicated to a single issue, such as opposition to abortion or immigration.

This definition of "rightwing extremism" is the foundation for the report, and the assessments made thereafter reflect this foundation - including its inherent problems and incorrect conflations. Both this definition and the report itself incorrectly conflate racism (including anti-semitism) with rightwing extremism, racist beliefs with anti-government beliefs, the militia movement with extremism/violence, right-wing ideology/socio-political views with extremism/violence, and disagreement with liberal policy changes with racism. In so doing, both this definition and the report itself fail to identify RWE groups or individuals and fail to offer any specification or quantification of the assessments made.

Later, having implicated the "militia movement" and white supremacists as falling within its definition of "rightwing extremists", the report identifies the ideological issues of these entities. Under Revisiting the 1990s on page 4 of 9 of the report:

Paralleling the current national climate, rightwing extremists during the 1990s exploited a variety of social issues and political themes to increase group visibility and recruit new members. Prominent among these themes were the militia movement's opposition to gun control efforts, criticism of free trade agreements (particularly those with Mexico), and highlighting perceived government infringement on civil liberties as well as white supremacists' longstanding exploitation of social issues such as abortion, inter-racial crimes, and same-sex marriage.

The report's definition of RWE also includes the following:

Rightwing extremism in the United States ...may include groups and individuals that are dedicated to a single issue, such as opposition to abortion or immigration.

Of course, the report takes a page from the MIAC report - and typical liberal obfuscation - by claiming rightwing opposition to "immigration", when in fact rightwing ideology is opposed not to immigration but rather to illegal immigration. Opposition to illegal immigration is generally a rightwing issue; however, xenophobia - which is far more likely to lead to anti-immigrant (illegal or otherwise) violence - is by no means a rightwing ideology.

Anti-abortionism is clearly a rightwing ideology, and abortion clinic bombing and other similar acts of violence are rightly considered to be rightwing extremism. Oddly, the report neither discusses the past trends in, nor assesses the future risk of, such anti-abortion extremism.

Thus, putting together all of the above, all of the following ideologies are included as potentially related to "rightwing extremism":

  • hatred of particular religious, racial or ethnic groups
  • antigovernment
    • rejecting federal authority in favor of state or local authority
    • rejecting government authority entirely
  • abortion
  • (illegal) immigration
  • opposition to gun control efforts
  • criticism of free trade agreements (particularly those with Mexico)
  • "perceived" government infringement on civil liberties
  • inter-racial crimes
  • and same-sex marriage.

This definition of "rightwing extremism" is so overly broad that it actually includes leftwing ideology. The report frequently references and discusses racism and white supremacists; however, white supremacists (National Socialists, Aryan Nation, etc.) generally adhere to socialist - i.e. leftwing - ideology. Likewise, most criticism of free trade agreements has come from not from the right but rather from the left.

Worse, having made an overly broad definition of "rightwing extremism", the report later asserts that "rightwing extremists" are, as a group, mutually exclusive from "law-abiding Americans". On page 6 of 9, under Judicial Drivers, the report states:

Open source reporting of wartime ammunition shortages has likely spurred rightwing extremists - as well as law-abiding Americans - to make bulk purchases of ammunition. These shortages have increased the cost of ammunition, further exacerbating rightwing extremist paranoia and leading to further stockpiling activity. Both rightwing extremists and law-abiding citizens share a belief that rising crime rates attributed to a slumping economy make the purchase of legitimate firearms a wise move at this time.

Not once, but twice in the same paragraph, the report indicates that "rightwing extremists" are not law-abiding Americans.

Whether intentional or unintentional, the implication being made by the report is unmistakable: rightwing extremism is defined by ideology devoid of proclivity toward violence, and rightwing extremists are by definition not law-abiding citizens.

#2 Failure to identify RWE groups or individuals, identify evidence of risk of impending rightwing extremism violence, or specify/quantify assessments

Unlike the Leftwing Extremism report, which explicitly names the leftwing groups to which the report applies, the Rightwing Extremism report fails to identify any rightwing groups explicitly. Further, unlike the Leftwing Extremism report, which identifies explicit acts of violence committed by leftwing extremists (as well as communications indicating intent to continue such acts) and bases its assessments on those acts, the Rightwing Extremism report indicates that no evidence exists that rightwing extremists are intending to commit any acts of violence - and then proceeds to assert baseless speculation of an increased risk of rightwing extremists committing acts of violence. The Rightwing Extremism report consistently references "extremist groups" and "militia members", but likewise consistently fails to identify any such groups or militias by name. The report identifies only two entities by name: Timothy McVeigh, and Christian Identity.

On page 2 of 9, under Key Findings, the report states:

The DHS/Office of Intelligence and Analysis (I&A) has no specific information that domestic rightwing terrorists are currently planning acts of violence, but rightwing extremists may be gaining new recruits by playing on their fears about several emergent issues.

The report asserts that "rightwing extremists" may be gaining new recruits, but fails to identify any such groups. Nor does the report offer any statistics on increase in numbers of recruits.

The first bullet point under this paragraph indicates:

Threats from white supremacist and violent antigovernment groups during 2009 have been largely rhetorical and have not indicated plans to carry out violent acts.

Again, the report apparently has some specific knowledge of some sort of rhetoric, yet fails to identify the groups for which this rhetoric is known.

The second bullet point makes a similar assertion:

Rightwing extremists have capitalized on the election of the first African American president, and are focusing their efforts to recruit new members, mobilize existing supporters, and broaden their scope and appeal through propaganda, but they have not yet turned to attack planning.

Once again, the report apparently has some specific knowledge of some groups capitalizing on the election of the first African American president, yet fails to identify any such groups.

On page 3 of 9, under Exploiting Economic Downturn, the report states:

Rightwing extremist chatter on the Internet continues to focus on the economy, the perceived loss of U.S. jobs in the manufacturing and construction sectors, and home foreclosures.

Again, the report apparently has some specific knowledge of extremist Internet "chatter", yet fails to identify the source of or the groups participating in such chatter.

On the same page, under Historic Presidential Election, the report states:

Rightwing extremists are harnessing this historical election as a recruitment tool. Many rightwing extremists are antagonistic toward the new presidential administration and its perceived stance on a range of issues, including immigration and citizenship, the expansion of social programs to minorities, and restrictions on firearms ownership and use. Rightwing extremists are increasingly galvanized by these concerns and leverage them as drivers for recruitment. From the 2008 election timeframe to the present, rightwing extremists have capitalized on related racial and political prejudices in expanded propaganda campaigns, thereby reaching out to a wider audience of potential sympathizers.

Again, the report apparently has some specific knowledge of RWEs harnessing the election as a recruitment tool, yet fails to identify any such groups. Nor does the report offer any statistics on increase in numbers of recruits.

The subsequent bullet point states:

Most statements by rightwing extremists have been rhetorical, expressing concerns about the election of the first African American president, but stopping short of calls for violent action.

Again, the report apparently has some specific knowledge of some sort of rhetoric, yet fails to identify the groups for which this rhetoric is known.

The bullet point continues:

In two instances in the run-up to the election, extremists appeared to be in the early planning stages of some threatening activity targeting the Democratic nominee, but law enforcement interceded.

And again, the report references specific incidents, yet fails to identify the involved parties (much less, any group to which they may have belonged).

On page 5 of 9, under Illegal Immigration, the report states:

Over the past five years, various rightwing extremists, including militias and white supremacists, have adopted the immigration issue as a call to action, rallying point, and recruiting tool.

Again, the report apparently has some specific knowledge of militias and white supremacists adopting the illegal immigration issue, yet fails to identify any such groups. Nor does the report offer any statistics on increase in numbers of recruits.

On page 5 of 9, under Legislation and Judicial Drivers, the report states:

Many rightwing extremist groups perceive recent gun control legislation as a threat to their right to bear arms and in response have increased weapons and ammunition stockpiling, as well as renewed participation in paramilitary training exercises.

Once again, the report apparently has some specific knowledge of groups increasing weapons and ammunition stockpiling and renewing participation in paramilitary training exercises, yet fails to identify any such groups. Nor does the report offer any statistics on increase weapons/ammunition stockpiling.

The report offers the same treatment of so-called disgruntled military veterans; however, this discussion is addressed previously and not repeated here.

On page 8 of 9, under Outlook, the report states:

  • Following the 1995 bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah federal building in Oklahoma City, the militia movement declined in total membership and in the number of organized groups because many members distanced themselves from the movement as a result of the intense scrutiny militias received after the bombing.
  • Militia membership continued to decline after the turn of the millennium as a result of law enforcement disruptions of multiple terrorist plots linked to violent rightwing extremists, new legislation banning paramilitary training, and militia frustration that the "revolution" never materialized.
  • Although the U.S. economy experienced a significant recovery and many perceived a concomitant rise in U.S. standing in the world, white supremacist groups continued to experience slight growth.

And once again, the report apparently has some specific knowledge of a decline in number of militia groups as well as a decrease in militia group membership rolls, yet fails to identify the groups or offer any statistics on that decline. Likewise, the report offers no statistics on the asserted slight growth in white supremacist groups and fails to identify those groups. Perhaps most interestingly, the report asserts both that militia membership has been in decline for more than a decade, and may now be increasing - yet offers no statistics whatsoever to support either assertion.

#3 Downplaying the differentiation between mainstream rightwing groups and lone wolf fringe extremists, and the relative risk of each

The report consistently references (and maligns) militias as "rightwing extremist" groups, and associates a risk of potential violence with such groups; however, the report downplays its conclusion that the greatest risk comes not from militia groups, but rather from "lone wolves" and "small terrorist cells". Even worse, the report actually concludes that the greatest risk comes not from militia members at all, but rather from white supremacists.

From a sidebar titled Lone Wolves and Small Terrorist Cells on page 7 of 9, the report states:

DHS/I&A assesses that lone wolves and small terrorist cells embracing violent rightwing extremist ideology are the most dangerous domestic terrorism threat in the United States. Information from law enforcement and nongovernmental organizations indicates lone wolves and small terrorist cells have shown intent - and, in some cases, the capability - to commit violent acts.

  • DHS/I&A has concluded that white supremacist lone wolves pose the most significant domestic terrorist threat because of their low profile and autonomy - separate from any formalized group - which hampers warning efforts.
  • Similarly, recent state and municipal law enforcement reporting has warned of the dangers of rightwing extremists embracing the tactics of "leaderless resistance" and of lone wolves carrying out acts of violence.
  • Arrests in the past several years of radical militia members in Alabama, Arkansas, and Pennsylvania on firearms, explosives, and other related violations indicates the emergence of small, well-armed extremist groups in some rural areas.

On the same page, under Disgruntled Military Veterans, the report conflates the risk of lone wolves and small terrorist cells with militias:

[Returning veterans' military training and combat] skills and knowledge have the potential to boost the capabilities of extremists - including lone wolves or small terrorist cells - to carry out violence. The willingness of a small percentage of military personnel to join extremist groups during the 1990s because they were disgruntled, disillusioned, or suffering from the psychological effects of war is being replicated today.

If the real threat comes from lone wolves and small terrorist cells, why does so much of the report focus on the militia movement and militia groups - groups that have repeatedly and consistently repudiated the extremist viewpoints and ideologies of those lone wolves and cell groups?

#4 Conflation of militia movement with extremism/voilence (i.e. MIAC II)

In a near carbon-copy of the MIAC report, the DHS report conflates militias and the militia movement with extremism and violence. Going even further, the report implies that militias are part of the "domestic rightwing terrorist and extremist groups" designation. To wit, on page 2 of 9, under Key Findings, the report indicates:

The current economic and political climate has some similarities to the 1990s when rightwing extremism experienced a resurgence fueled largely by an economic recession, criticism about the outsourcing of jobs, and the perceived threat to U.S. power and sovereignty by other foreign powers.

  • During the 1990s, these issues contributed to the growth in the number of domestic rightwing terrorist and extremist groups and an increase in violent acts targeting government facilities, law enforcement officers, banks, and infrastructure sectors.
  • Growth of these groups subsided in reaction to increased government scrutiny as a result of the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing and disrupted plots, improvements in the economy, and the continued U.S. standing as the preeminent world power.

This assessment under Key Findings does not specifically address or identify militias; however, the Key Findings section is a summary of findings that are further discussed and elaborated in the rest of the report. Compare that summary statement with the following assessment found on page 8 of 9 of the report, under Outlook:

A number of law enforcement actions and external factors were effective in limiting the militia movement during the 1990s and could be utilized in today's climate.

  • Following the 1995 bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah federal building in Oklahoma City, the militia movement declined in total membership and in the number of organized groups because many members distanced themselves from the movement as a result of the intense scrutiny militias received after the bombing.
  • Militia membership continued to decline after the turn of the millennium as a result of law enforcement disruptions of multiple terrorist plots linked to violent rightwing extremists, new legislation banning paramilitary training, and militia frustration that the "revolution" never materialized.

Comparing these two assessments clearly indicates that the report is implying that DHS considers the "militia movement" as (at least part of) the "domestic rightwing terroriswt and extremist groups" that saw a decline in membership as a result of increased government scrutiny following the bombing of the Oklahoma City Federal Building bombing.

Having established this implication, the report then uses the possible correlation of issues of concern in order to conflate even further militias and extremism/violence. Under Revisiting the 1990s on page 4 of 9 of the report:

Paralleling the current national climate, rightwing extremists during the 1990s exploited a variety of social issues and political themes to increase group visibility and recruit new members. Prominent among these themes were the militia movement's opposition to gun control efforts, criticism of free trade agreements (particularly those with Mexico), and highlighting perceived government infringement on civil liberties as well as white supremacists' longstanding exploitation of social issues such as abortion, inter-racial crimes, and same-sex marriage. During the 1990s, these issues contributed to the growth in the number of domestic rightwing terrorist and extremist groups and an increase in violent acts targeting government facilities, law enforcement officers, banks,and infrastructure sectors.

The report asserts that, somehow, the militia's issues of concern (gun control, free trade agreements, government infringement of civil liberties) relate to white supremacists' issues (abortion, inter-racial crimes, same-sex marriage - though why abortion and same-sex marriage would be issues for white supremacists I have no idea). Having made this assertion, the report then makes the blanket statement that "these issues contributed to the growth in number of domestic rightwing terrorist and extremist groups and an increase in violent acts targeting government facilities, law enforcement officers, banks, and infrastructure sectors."

Lest any pretense remain, the report then directly calls militias "rightwing extremists." Under Illegal Immigration on page 5 of 9 of the report:

Over the past five years, various rightwing extremists, including militias and white supremacists, have adopted the immigration issue as a call to action, rallying point, and recruiting tool.

And again, under Outlook on page 8 of 9:

DHS/I&A assesses that the combination of environmental factors that echo the 1990s, ...as well as several new trends, ...may be invigorating rightwing extremist activity, specifically the white supremacist and militia movements.

Having thus grouped militias (as a whole) under the "rightwing extremist" designation, the report then attempts to correlate militia membership with violence/extremism. Under the same Illegal Immigration section, the report lists three examples of violence directed toward illegal immigrants, two of which involve militia members:

  • In April 2007, six militia members were arrested for various weapons and explosives violations. Open source reporting alleged that those arrested had discussed and conducted surveillance for a machinegun attack on Hispanics.
  • A militia member in Wyoming was arrested in February 2007 after communicating his plans to travel to the Mexican border to kill immigrants crossing into the United States.

The problem, of course, is that (once again) the report fails to demonstrate an understanding of the principle that correlation does not prove causation. As with the MIAC report, the DHS report fails to address whether or not the militias of which these criminals were members sponsored or condoned their criminal actions. Further, the report fails to indicate that such occurrences are not the norm, but rather the extreme exception for militias and militia members. Oh, and JustOneMinute (h/t Transterrestrial Musings) uses some "open source reporting" of his own to debunk both points.

The report goes on to conflate further the actions of fringe extremists with militias. On page 6 of 9, under Perceived Threat from Rise of Other Countries, the report indicates:

  • Fear of Communist regimes and related conspiracy theories characterizing the U.S. Government's role as either complicit in a foreign invasion or acquiescing as part of a "One World Government" plan inspired extremist members of the militia movement to target government and military facilities in past years.
  • Law enforcement in 1996 arrested three rightwing militia members in Battle Creek, Michigan with pipe bombs, automatic weapons, and military ordnance that they planned to use in attacks on nearby military and federal facilities and infrastructure targets.

(Note that the first bullet point includes the report's only reference thus far to a potential differentiation between militias and extremists.)

Once more, in a sidebar titled "Lone Wolves and Small Terrorist Cells" on page 7 of 9 of the report:

Arrests in the past several years of radical militia members in Alabama, Arkansas, and Pennsylvania on firearms, explosives, and other related violations indicates the emergence of small, well-armed extremist groups in some rural areas.

Again, in all cases, the report still gives no indication of whether or not any militia sponsored or condoned such extremist activities.

However, perhaps the most insulting assertion in the report's conflation of militias with extremism and violence is the report's association with military veterans with extremism and violence. On page 7 of 9, under Disgruntled Military Veterans, the report states:

DHS/I&A assesses that rightwing extremists will attempt to recruit and radicalize returning veterans in order to exploit their skills and knowledge derived from military training and combat. These skills and knowledge have the potential to boost the capabilities of extremists - including lone wolves or small terrorist cells - to carry out violence. The willingness of a small percentage of military personnel to join extremist groups during the 1990s because they were disgruntled, disillusioned, or suffering from the psychological effects of war is being replicated today.

  • After Operation Desert Shield/Storm in 1990-1991, some returning military veterans - including Timothy McVeigh - joined or associated with rightwing extremist groups.
  • A prominent civil rights organization reported in 2006 that "large numbers of potentially violent neo-Nazis, skinheads, and other white supremacists are now learning the art of warfare in the [U.S.] armed forces."
  • The FBI noted in a 2008 report on the white supremacist movement that some returning military veterans from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have joined extremist groups.

Allow me to digress for a moment, on the matter of Timothy McVeigh. McVeigh - rightly so - is the poster child for extremist violence and domestic terrorism. He is not, however, an example of rightwing extremism. Timothy McVeigh associated primarily with neo-Nazis. The book that influenced his bombing, The Turner Diaries, was written by a neo-Nazi. Neo-Nazis - that is, National Socialists - are leftwing, not rightwing. Socialism is a leftwing ideology (an issue that I will address in a later post). McVeigh was not a member of any militia, nor did any militia support, endorse, or condone his actions. Even the ADL - no friend of militias - admits frankly that Timothy McVeigh was not connected to the militia movement:

No, [Timothy McVeigh] was not [connected with the militia movement]. He was not really connected to any particular movement. On the "hate" side, he obviously loved "The Turner Diaries" by William Pierce and read The Spotlight, the publication of the extremist and anti-Semitic Liberty Lobby. On the "anti-government" side, he attended a couple of militia meetings and half-heartedly attempted to start a militia group in Arizona, which came to nothing. He never really joined anything, either as a card-carrying member or even an explicit endorsement. This is also one reason why there was little support for McVeigh, simply because no one viewed him as one of "their own."

Also, as Gateway Pundit points out, McVeigh was military trained not as a bomb-maker, but as a gunner. He did not get his terrorist training in the U.S. military.

It is striking to note that, in a report released in 2009, the only (and, ostensibly, best) example of a military veteran/militia member/terrorist is someone who committed a terrorist attack almost fifteen years ago and one whose alleged militia association has been thoroughly disproven. As the American Legion points out, Timothy McVeigh is one of several million military veterans of contemporary warfare.

I could address these obvious insults to our military veterans, but the American Legion and others did a much better job already.

Also, the good folks at PowerLine (linked above) have already addressed and debunked the source information to which the report alludes, regarding extremists joining the military and returning veterans joining extremist groups.

On the report's assertion that "large numbers of potentially violent neo-Nazis, skinheads, and other white supremacists are now
learning the art of warfare in the [U.S.] armed forces" [emphasis mine, links in original]:

The "prominent civil rights organization" is the left-wing Southern Poverty Law Center. But what support is there for SPLC's assertion that there are "large numbers" of "white supremacists" serving in the armed forces--as opposed to, say, a "tiny handful"? The SPLC's full report is entirely anecdotal; the closest thing to data is this:

[Scott] Barfield, who is based at Fort Lewis, said he has identified and submitted evidence on 320 extremists there in the past year.

But even this alleged statistic appears to be false. Barfield was a gang investigator, and what he actually said was: "I have identified 320 soldiers as gang members from April 2002 to present." So we now have the Department of Homeland Security defaming our servicemen on the basis of a press release by a left-wing pressure group that misrepresented the principal empirical support for its claim. Nice.

On the report's assertion that "[the] FBI noted in a 2008 report on the white supremacist movement that some returning military veterans from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have joined extremist groups" [emphasis mine, link in original]:

So, how many are "some"? You can read the FBI report, titled "White Supremacist Recruitment of Military Personnel since 9/11," here. Notwithstanding the deliberate vagueness of the Homeland Security document, the FBI was actually very specific:

A review of FBI white supremacist extremist cases from October 2001 to May 2008 identified 203 individuals with confirmed or claimed military service active in the extremist movement at some time during the reporting period. This number is minuscule in comparison with the projected US veteran population of 23,816,000 as of 2 May 2008, or the 1,416,037 active duty military personnel as of 30 April 2008. ...

According to FBI information, an estimated 19 veterans (approximately 9 percent of the 203) have verified or unverified service in the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

There you have it: a whopping 19 actual or alleged veterans of Iraq or Afghanistan have joined the "extremist movement." (The FBI notes that some of these "may have inflated their resumes with fictional military experience to impress others within the movement.")

#5 Conflation of disagreement with liberal policy changes with racism

The report's definition of "rightwing extremism" includes "those groups, movements, and adherents that are primarily hate-oriented (based on hatred of particular religious, racial or ethnic groups)". The first paragraph under Key Findings (page 2 of 9) lists "the election of the first African American president" as a "unique [driver] for radicalization and recruitment." The first bullet point under this paragraph references "white supremacists" as one group of such RWE.

On pages 3 and 4 of 9, under Historical Presidential Election, the report states:

Rightwing extremists are harnessing this historical election as a recruitment tool. Many rightwing extremists are antagonistic toward the new presidential administration and its perceived stance on a range of issues, including immigration and citizenship, the expansion of social programs to minorities, and restrictions on firearms ownership and use. Rightwing extremists are increasingly galvanized by these concerns and leverage them a drivers for recruitment. From the 2008 election timeframe to the present, rightwing extremists have capitalized on related racial and political prejudices in expanded propaganda campaigns, thereby reaching out to a wider audience of potential sympathizers.

The bullet point that immediately follows (on page 4 of 9) states:

Most statements by rightwing extremists have been rhetorical, expressing concerns about the election of the first African American president, but stopping short of calls for violent action. In two instances in the run-up to the election, extremists appeard to be in the early planning stages of some threatening activity targeting the Democratic nominee, but law enforcement interceded.

The problem with conflating racism with RWE is that racism, bigotry, and other "hate-oriented" ideologies are not a right-or-left political matter. The right/left political spectrum involves the level of government involvement in and control over the life of the individual. The right favors individualism/federalism and the left favors socialism/statism. One can adhere to an ideology of bigotry while ascribing to a right or left political viewpoint.

Right-wing ideological groups do not inherently support or condone racism. With respect to racism against "African Americans", it was the right that led the abolitionist movement, fought for an end to slavery against the southern Democrats (figuratively in the legislature and literally in the Civil War), issued the Emancipation Proclamation, and introduced the Equal Rights Amendment. With anti-Hispanic racism and violence, the issue is mostly apolitical and manifests in inner-city/gang violence between "African Americans" and Hispanics.

Consider also that the report defines not only racists as "rightwing extremists", but applies the broad "hate-oriented (based on hatred of particular religious, racial, or ethnic groups)" description. Much of this type of bigoted ideology belongs to leftwing extremists.

On page 5 of 9, under Illegal Immigration, the report "notes that prominent civil rights organizations have observed an increase in anti-Hispanic crimes over the past five years."

The problem with this statement is that the "prominent civil rights organization" is (once again) the Southern Poverty Law Center, and the SPLC's "observation" is an intentional misrepresentation of FBI crime statistics. As this press release from FAIR (h/t 24Ahead) explains:

When examined responsibly, the FBI hate crime data show a dramatically different story than the one the SPLC portrays. First, in order to suggest an artificially large increase in the raw number of hate crimes, the SPLC selects 2003 as its base year, one of lowest years on record for hate crimes against Hispanics. If one compares the number of hate crimes between 1995 (the earliest report available on the FBI's website) and 2006 (the most recent statistical year available), one would see that the number of hate crimes has increased only 17 percent.

But even this is not the whole story. The SPLC conveniently forgets to index the raw hate crime data with the population, a step always taken by the FBI to more accurately depict an increase or decrease in crime. Thus, when one indexes a 17 percent increase in hate crimes against Hispanics with a 67 percent increase in the Hispanic population between 1995 and 2006, it becomes clear that the rate of hate crimes against Hispanics has in fact dropped dramatically -- by about 40 percent.

#6 Conflation of racism (and anti-semitism), anti-government beliefs, and "rightwing extremism" (RWE)

On page 3 of 9, under Current Economic and Political Climate, the report indicates that "the historical election of an African American president and the prospect of policy changes are proving to be a driving force for rightwing extremist recriutment and radicalization." As an example of this threat, the report references the recent Pittsburgh police shootings, and stating (among other things) "The alleged gunman's reaction reportedly was influenced by his racist ideology and belief in antigovernment conspiracy theories related to ...a Jewish-controlled 'one world government.'" On the same page, under Exploiting Economic Downturn, the report states, "Anti-Semitic extremists attribute [U.S. job] losses to a deliberate conspiracy conducted by a cabal of Jewish 'financial elites.'"

With respect to anti-semitism, this ideology is found predominantly on the left.

Returning to the report's definition of "rightwing extremism":

Rightwing extremism in the United States can be broadly divided into those groups, movements, and adherents that are primarily hate-oriented (based on hatred of particular religious, racial or ethnic groups), and those that are mainly antigovernment, rejecting federal authority in favor of state or local authority, or rejecting government authority entirely. It may include groups and individuals that are dedicated to a single issue, such as opposition to abortion or immigration.

The report conflates hate-based groups, movements, and adherents with antigovernment groups, movements, and adherents, without offering any reasoning whatsoever for why these two ideologies should be grouped together. The only example offered of such reasoning is the previously mentioned Philadelphia police shooting incident. According to the report, "[t]he alleged gunman's reaction reportedly was influenced by his racist ideology and belief in antigovernment conspiracy theories related to gun confiscations, citizen detention camps, and a Jewish-controlled "one world government." The report conflates the ideologies but fails to observe the fundamental concept that correlation does not prove causation.

In reality, leftwing extremist groups (including white supremacist groups) tend to be racist, anti-Christian, and anti-government, and tend to favor violent opposition to and overthrow of government. The militia movement - from which rightwing extremism ostensibly comes (and with scant evidence to support the assertion, at that) - tends to be race-agnostic, Christian, and vigilant toward government, and tend to favor defensive readiness in case of government oppression.

Note also that for leftwing white supremacist groups extremism is the norm, while for rightwing militia groups extremism is the (incredibly rare) exception.

#7 Conflation of economic downturn/poverty with rightwing radicalization

The report asserts that economic downturn and poverty is a driver for rightwing radicalization. On page 3 of 9, under Current Political and Economic Climate, the report states:

DHS/I&A assesses that a number of economic and political factors are driving a resurgence in rightwing extremist recruitment and radicalization activity.

Further on the same page, under Exploiting Economic Downturn, the report states:

Rightwing extremist chatter on the Internet continues to focus on the economy, the perceived loss of U.S. jobs in the manufacturing and construction sectors, and home foreclosures. Anti-Semitic extremists attribute these losses to a deliberate conspiracy conducted by a cabal of Jewish "financial elites." These "accusatory" tactics are employed to draw new recruits into rightwing extremist groups and further radicalize those already subscribing to extremist beliefs. DHS/I&A assesses this trend is likely to accelerate if the economy is perceived to worsen.

(Strange, but I don't remember the G-20 protesters being particularly rightwing; quite to the contrary, such protesters have been traditionally leftwing.)

On page 4 of 9, under Economic Hardship and Extremism, the report states:

Historically, domestic rightwing extremists have feared, predicted, and anticipated a cataclysmic economic collapse in the United States. Prominent antigovernment conspiracy theorists have incorporated aspects of an impending economic collapse to intensify fear and paranoia among like-minded individuals and to attract recruits during times of economic uncertainty.

On the same page, in a sidebar titled Perceptions on Poverty and Radicalization, the report states:

Scholars and experts disagree over poverty's role in motivating violent radicalization or terrorist activity. High unemployment, however, has the potential to lead to alienation, thus increasing an individual's susceptibility to extremist ideas. According to a 2007 study from the German Institute for Economic Research, there appears to be a strong association between a parent's unemployment status and the formation of rightwing extremist beliefs in their children - specifically xenophobia and antidemocratic ideals.

Oddly, the unemployment lines and welfare rolls swell with people who generally adhere to leftwing ideologies. Further, 50 years of welfare state have led to a class of citizens who adhere to and who vote for candidates who adhere to leftwing ideologies. If poverty and unemployment were drivers for formation of rightwing extremist beliefs, then our major metropolitan areas and inner cities would not be the liberal bastions that they have become.

On page 5 of 9, under Illegal Immigration, the report states:

Rightwing extremists were concerned during the 1990s with the perception that illegal immigrants were taking away American jobs through their willingness to work at significantly lower wages. They also opposed free trade agreements, arguing that these arrangements resulted in Americans losing jobs to countries such as Mexico.

Later, under Perceived Threat from Rise of Other Countries, on page 6 of 9, the report states:

Rightwing extremist views bemoan the decline of U.S. stature and have recently focused on themes such as the loss of U.S. manufacturing capability to China and India, Russia's control of energy resources and use of these to pressure other countries, and China's investment in U.S. real estate and corporations as a part of subversion strategy.

The report obfuscates the issues of illegal immigration and domestic job losses to illegal immigrants with the issues of free trade agreements and domestic job losses due to outsourcing. The former are indeed rightwing issues, and have led to almost no extremist activity or violence; however, the latter are generally leftwing issues, and have led to several instances of extremist activity and violence. Further, given recent news, it is clearly no longer merely a perception that illegal immigrants are taking jobs away from American citizens.

#8 Failure to cite sources for assessments/assertions

The report repeatedly asserts potential outcomes (things that may happen, or are likely to happen, etc.), and fails to cite even one source.

The most significant of such assertions may be the first sentence of the report (page 2 of 9) [emphasis added]:

The DHS/Office of Intelligence and Analysis (I&A) has no specific information that domestic rightwing terrorists are currently planning acts of violence, but rightwing extremists may be gaining new recruits by playing on their fears about several emergent issues.

Summarizing other such assertions, page by page, starting with page 2 of 9 [emphasis added]:

Nevertheless, the consequences of a prolonged economic downturn - including real estate foreclosures, unemployment, and an inability to obtain credit - could create a fertile recruiting environment for rightwing extremists and even result in confrontations between such groups and government authorities similar to those in the past.

The possible passage of new restrictions on firearms and the return of military veterans facing significant challenges reintegrating into their communities could lead to the potential emergence of terrorist groups or lone wolf extremists capable of carrying out violent attacks.

Page 3 of 9 [emphasis added]:

Proposed imposition of firearms restrictions and weapons bans likely would attract new members into the ranks of rightwing extremist groups, as well as potentially spur some of them to begin planning and training for violence against the government.

DHS/I&A is concerned that rightwing extremists will attempt to recruit and radicalize returning veterans in order to boost their violent capabilities.

DHS/I&A assesses this trend is likely to accelerate if the economy is perceived to worsen.

Page 5 of 9 [emphasis added]:

DHS/I&A assesses that rightwing extremist groups' frustration over a perceived lack of government action on illegal immigration has the potential to incite individuals or small groups toward violence. If such violence were to occur, it likely would be isolated, small-scale, and directed at specific immigration-related targets.

Such activity, combined with a heightened level of extremist paranoia, has the potential to facilitate criminal activity and violence.

Page 6 of 9 [emphasis added]:

It is unclear if either bill will be passed into law; nonetheless, a correlation may exist between the potential passage of gun control legislation and increased hoarding of ammunition, weapons stockpiling, and paramilitary training activities among rightwing extremists.

Open source reporting of wartime ammunition shortages has likely spurred rightwing extremists - as well as law-abiding Americans - to make bulk purchases of ammunition.

Weapons rights and gun-control legislation are likely to be hotly contested subjects of political debate in light of the 2008 Supreme Court's decision in District of Columbia v. Heller in which the Court reaffirmed an individual's right to keep and bear arms under the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, but left open to debate the precise contours of that right.

Because debates over constitutional rights are intense, and parties on all sides have deeply held, sincere, but vastly divergent beliefs, violent extremists may attempt to co-opt the debate and use the controversy as a adicalization tool.

Rightwing extremist paranoia of foreign regimes could escalate or be magnified in the event of an economic crisis or military confrontation, harkening back to the "New World Order" conspiracy theories of the 1990s.

Page 7 of 9 [emphasis added]:

DHS/I&A assesses that rightwing extremists will attempt to recruit and radicalize returning veterans in order to exploit their skills and knowledge derived from military training and combat.

These skills and knowledge have the potential to boost the capabilities of extremists - including lone wolves or small terrorist cells - to carry out violence.

Page 8 of 9 [emphasis added]:

DHS/I&A assesses that the combination of environmental factors that echo the 1990s, ...as well as several new trends, ...may be invigorating rightwing extremist activity, specifically the white supremacist and militia movements.

To the extent that these factors persist, rightwing extremism is likely to grow in strength.

Unlike the earlier period, the advent of the Internet and other informationage technologies since the 1990s has given domestic extremists greater access to information related to bomb-making, weapons training, and tactics, as well as targeting of individuals, organizations, and facilities, potentially making extremist individuals and groups more dangerous and the consequences of their violence more severe.

Of the few statistics to which the report alludes, sources are referenced but not cited properly or even named specifically. To wit:

On page 5 of 9, under Illegal Immigration, the report states [emphasis added]:

DHS/I&A notes that prominent civil rights organizations have observed an increase in anti-Hispanic crimes over the past five years.

On page 6 of 9, under Legislative and Judicial Drivers, the report states [emphasis added]:

Open source reporting of wartime ammunition shortages has likely spurred rightwing extremists - as well as law-abiding Americans - to make bulk purchases of ammunition.

On page 7 of 9, under Disgruntled Military Veterans, the report states [emphasis added]:

The willingness of a small percentage of military personnel to join extremist groups during the 1990s because they were disgruntled, disillusioned, or suffering from the psychological effects of war is being replicated today.

After Operation Desert Shield/Storm in 1990-1991, some returning military veterans - including Timothy McVeigh - joined or associated with rightwing extremist groups.

A prominent civil rights organization reported in 2006 that "large numbers of potentially violent neo-Nazis, skinheads, and other white supremacists are now learning the art of warfare in the [U.S.] armed forces."

The FBI noted in a 2008 report on the white supremacist movement that some returning military veterans from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have joined extremist groups.

And as was shown previously, failure to disclose sources for such statistics prevents the reader from discerning any potential bias in the source material. Considering that one of the "prominent civil rights groups" referenced in the report is the Southern Law Poverty Center, a well-known liberal activist group, conclusions drawn from such a source must be buffered against the inherent bias of the source. Likewise, failure to cite the specific FBI report facilitates the report's out-of-context use of the source to mis-construe its results.

Nancy Pelosi: Un-American

Filed in Politics, Social IssuesTags: Constitutional Rights, Democrats

These statements should be an impeachable offense - or at the very least, subject to Congressional censure:

Via Lucianne and Michelle Malkin, Nancy Pelosi tells a partially illegal-immigrant comprised crowd that enforcement of US immigration laws is "un-American":

"Who in this country would not want to change a policy of kicking in doors in the middle of the night and sending a parent away from their families?" Pelosi told a mostly Hispanic gathering at St. Anthony's Church in San Francisco.

"It must be stopped....What value system is that? I think it's un-American. I think it's un-American."

...

Referring to work site enforcement actions by ICE agents, Pelosi said, "We have to have a change in policy and practice and again ... I can't say enough, the raids must end. The raids must end.

And to add insult to injury, Pelosi called those who are in our country illegally patriotic:

"You are special people. You're here on a Saturday night to take responsibility for our country's future. That makes you very, very patriotic."

And no, the claim that these statements should be an impeachable offense are not hyperbole. Please refer to the Congressional Oath of Office:

I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter: So help me God.

Calling enforcement of duly enacted Federal law "un-American", and actively calling for that enforcement to be stopped, is clearly dereliction of duty for a US Representative, and clearly demonstrates a failure to uphold the oath of office to which that Representative has sworn.

Nancy Pelosi: you are un-American.

Colorado Legislature Tries to Vote Away State Soverignty

Filed in PoliticsTags: Constitutional Rights, Democrats, Elections

Apparently, our education system has been dumbed-down sufficiently that the entire concept of our country's founding as a federation of sovereign states is becoming lost.

Via Lucianne, the Colorado House passed legislation that would award the state's electoral-college votes not to the state's popular-vote winner, but rather to the national popular-vote winner:

Currently, whoever wins most of the country's 538 electoral votes becomes president. Under Tuesday's bill, Colorado would send its nine electoral votes to the winner of the most popular votes nationally.

"Basically, whoever receives the most votes for president in all 50 states should become president," said the sponsor, Rep. Andy Kerr, D-Lakewood.

Basically, Andy Kerr is an idiot, and has no business holding elected office. Basically, Andy Kerr needs to go back to school and take a basic American History/Civics course.

Though, I have to imagine that the people of Colorado won't look too kindly on having their votes for President completely ignored.

The last paragraph in the article belies the underlying motivation for such legislation:

Had the scheme been in place in 2000, Colorado would have sent its electoral votes to Al Gore, who won the national popular vote, even though the majority of Colorado voters chose George W. Bush.

Apparently, some Democrats are still trying to get Al Gore elected in the 2000 presidential race.

Congress Considering Obama Youth Legislation

Filed in PoliticsTags: Constitutional Rights, Democrats

It's coming: the Hitler Obama Youth program.

Via Lucianne, the US House Education and Labor Committee moved the GIVE Act legislation, that would, in addition to expanding AmeriCorps, create a "Congressional Commission on Civil Service" [emphasis added]:

The bipartisan commission will be tasked with exploring a number of topics, including "whether a workable, fair and reasonable mandatory service requirement for all able young people could be developed and how such a requirement could be implemented in a manner that would strengthen the social fabric of the nation."

I'm waiting for Dear Leader to start sprouting a little moustache any day now.

President Obama is Anti-Military Scum

Filed in PoliticsTags: Democrats, Military

Via Lucianne, our disaster-in-the-making President and Commander In Chief Obama is floating a plan that would make military service members pay for their service-related injuries with private insurance.

As the Lucianne thread commenters have pointed out, Obama wants the government to pay for universal health care - which means that he thinks the government should foot the health-care bill for everyone, except for those who were injured in the line of duty protecting and defending our country.

Every day, Obama proves again and again that he truly is un-American.

Hope and change, indeed.

God save our country.