Colts-Pats Analysis After Week 7

Filed in SportsTags: Colts, Indiana, Indianapolis, Media Bias, NFL

(Or: Shutting Up Tony Cornhole)

So, are the Pats really dominating more than any other team in the league? From listening to the sycophants analysts, one would think so. However, that analysis may not be true.

Using the team-offense and team-defense stats available on NFL.com, I compared how each team has performed relative to their opponents.

Patriots Through Week 7

The Pats are ranked 1 in scoring offense at 39.9 ppg, and 10 in scoring defense at 17.1 ppg.

The Pats' opponents have a combined record of 17-28 (average record of 2.4-4), their offenses score an average 23.8 ppg, and their defenses give up an average 26.7 ppg.

Discounting each team's game against the Pats, those teams have a combined record of 17-21 (average record of 2.4-3), their offenses average 24.6 ppg, and their defenses give up an average of 23.9 ppg. This "composite" team would rank 8 in offensive scoring and 24 in defensive scoring.

Against the Pats, these teams scored an average of 17.1 ppg and their defenses gave up an average of 39.9 ppg.

Thus, relative to their opponents, the Pats have held their opponents to 7.5 ppg less than their average, while scoring 16 ppg more than their other average.

Colts Through Week 7

So how do the Colts compare?

The Colts are ranked 3 in scoring offense at 32.2 ppg, and 6 in scoring defense at 15.8 ppg.

The Colts' opponents have a combined record of 20-18 (average record of 3.3-3), their offenses score an average 19.4 ppg, and their defenses give up an average 20.9 ppg.

Discounting each team's game against the Colts, those teams have a combined record of 20-12 (average record 3.3-2), their offenses average 20.2 ppg, and their defenses give up an average of 19.0 ppg. This "composite" team would rank 18 in offensive scoring and 14 in defensive scoring.

Against the Colts, these teams scored an average of 15.8 ppg and their defenses gave up an average of 32.2 ppg.

Thus, relative to their opponents, the Colts have held their opponents to 4.4 ppg less than their other average, while scoring 13.2 ppg more than their average.

Conclusion?

The Pats have played teams with good offenses and horrible defenses. Against these teams, they hold them to 7.5 ppg less than their average, while scoring 16 ppg more than their average.

The Colts have played teams with both average offense and an average defense. Against these teams, they hold them to 4.4 ppg less than their average, while scoring 13.2 ppg more than their average.

Thus, the Pats' defense is clearly playing well against good offenses, while their offense is feasting on atrocious offenses. Meanwhile, the Colts' defense is outplaying average offenses, while their offense is clearly dominating average defenses.

The Pats' defense is a bit more impressive against good offenses than the Colts' defense is against average offenses; however, The Colts' offense against average defenses is performing on par with the Pats' offense against terrible defenses.

In other words, anyone who, at this point in the season, crowns the Pats' offense as head-and-shoulders above everyone else is simply ignorant of the facts. This Colts offense is demonstrably as good as the Pats offense.

(My calculations can be found in this (.ods format) spreadsheet: Colts Pats Comparison 2007 Week 7.)

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3 Responses to “Colts-Pats Analysis After Week 7”
  1. Mel says:

    Yeah, but the Bengals are definitely going to be better than both of them…

  2. Thanks for the analysis :)

  3. Stephanie says:

    Tom Brady is the best quarterback- no- football player to have ever walked the earth. Bow down and worship he who is almighty and perfect: Tom Brady. One day we will see him play a game held not on turf but on water, as he gracefully glides across the surface.